TL;DR: 31% of the global freighter fleet is already at retirement age now, and by 2030 close to half will be at or near retirement age. Manufacturers cannot build replacements fast enough. Best-case projections put new freighter deliveries at just 12% of the fleet by 2030. Demand outpaced supply every month in 2024, and rates are rising again. The squeeze will last the rest of the decade.

The global air cargo industry is running out of aircraft – not in a theoretical, long-range forecast sense, but in measurable, operational terms right now. The freighter fleet is ageing faster than it is being replaced. Manufacturers are prioritising narrowbody passenger jets. Boeing cannot hit its own production targets. And demand keeps growing regardless.

The World Cargo Summit 2025 in Bruges produced a clear consensus: this is not a short-term. The capacity squeeze runs to 2030 and beyond. Shippers, forwarders and carriers all need to plan for a structurally tighter market.

An Ageing Fleet With No Replacement in Sight

Right now, 31% of available freighters are 30 years or older. Dr Ludwig Hausmann, Partner at McKinsey & Co, describes it plainly:

“Over many years we have seen an ageing of our freighters. But the last five years have been crazy and massive.”

Dr Ludwig Hausmann, Partner at McKinsey & Co

McKinsey analysis presented at the summit shows that when the next cohort reaches retirement age by 2030, the industry will simultaneously face the largest generational fleet rollover in its history – with close to half of all freighters either already at or approaching retirement age. To be clear: 31% are already at retirement age now; by 2030, an additional 17% of the fleet will be aged between 26 and 30 years old, meaning close to half will be at or near retirement age by that point. The best-case projection is just 12% of new freighter deliveries by 2030. Dr Hausmann adds: “Best case, we will get 12% of new deliveries of freighters by 2030… There’s very little that makes me believe this number will be larger than that, there’s rather more risk of delays.” Manufacturers are filling their order books with narrowbody passenger aircraft, which are more profitable to build. Freighters are not the priority.

Production Failures Are Making the Problem Worse

According to analysis published by stattimes.com, global aircraft production finished 2025 roughly 24% below 2019 levels, representing an industry-wide shortfall of around 6,000 aircraft. This is a full-year 2025 figure published after the Bruges summit and is cited here from stattimes.com reporting. The global aircraft industry carries over 17,000 unfilled aircraft orders – a backlog estimated to take more than 12 years to clear at current production rates, per the same analysis. It is worth noting that this figure reflects industry-wide orders and is not freighter-specific. As of the date of the stattimes.com reporting, Boeing was reportedly targeting five widebody deliveries per month but producing two, while Airbus was reportedly targeting 11 A350s per month by 2027 but building five – figures that are time-sensitive and should be verified against current manufacturer data. Fleet growth is now lagging pre-pandemic projections by six years, according to stattimes.com fleet forecast data.

Those cost pressures pass through to market rates. Speaking in a separate interview context, Richard Broekman, Chief Commercial Officer at Atlas Air Worldwide, was direct about the pricing implication, noting that if 40% of operating costs were suddenly to double overnight, that would have to be reflected in market rates as well. The passenger-to-freighter conversion pipeline is also drying up. The conversion backlog dropped to around 320 units in 2025, with forecast volumes falling sharply after 2029 – from roughly 80 to 95 per year between 2026 and 2029, declining to 67 in 2030, 54 in 2031, 27 in 2032, and just four aircraft by 2034. Airlines cannot retire aircraft they have not yet replaced.

Demand Is Not Waiting for Supply to Catch Up

McKinsey data shows demand constantly outstripped supply growth month by month throughout 2024. Air cargo rates fell 33% below 2022 levels in 2023, then began recovering. At the World Cargo Summit in Bruges in January 2025, Rogier Blocq, Director of Product Development at WorldACD, observed that rates were picking up again after the 2023 trough. Industry observers have noted that constrained capacity is becoming structural rather than cyclical, with the market effectively pricing in sustained scarcity. According to industry data cited by stattimes.com, approximately 50% of global airfreight moves in passenger belly holds, meaning slower passenger fleet growth compounds the problem. Separately, Broekman has observed that a shortage of belly capacity simply compounds the overall shortage of freighter capacity.

50%Of global airfreight moves in passenger belly holds, compounding freighter capacity shortages

Atlas Air recently announced a $7 billion order for 20 Airbus A350Fs – its first Airbus commitment after operating exclusively with Boeing – and acquired a 49% stake in Air Atlanta Icelandic, securing additional widebody capacity. This announcement was made separately from the Bruges summit; further details including the precise date of announcement are available via the Atlas Air corporate newsroom. Aevean’s MD Marco Bloemen – speaking at the World Cargo Summit in Bruges – offered the following assessment of the production-versus-ordering disconnect: “We are now at a stage where we are ordering all kinds of capacity, but there is not so much being delivered. Future capacity will not be derived from what we are ordering, but from how much the manufacturers can deliver.” Boeing delivery delays are already visible at the operational level. Peter Scholten of Air One Aviation told the panel that Air One would be offering a fleet of 11 747s, with two new 777s joining at some point in 2025, delayed from 2024 due to Boeing production issues. These are not abstract projections. They are happening now.

What Air Cargo Capacity Constraints Mean for Forwarders

For independent freight forwarders, a sustained capacity shortage changes the quoting game. Allocation contracts matter more. Carrier relationships matter more. Access to multiple carriers on key lanes matters more. Forwarders with multi-carrier access and faster quoting workflows are better positioned to retain cargo when capacity is constrained. Based on current projections, the market is unlikely to ease materially before 2030. Forwarders who act now to secure multi-carrier access and build contingency routing options will be best positioned to protect their margins and their customers.

At Cargo Solutions Network, we track these market shifts closely because they affect every quote, every booking and every lane our members work. When freighter capacity is this constrained, speed and access to verified partners become the margin. Forwarders need multi-carrier comparison, not single-source quotes. They need airport-to-airport (A2A) and door-to-door (D2D) options in one workflow – and they need it fast. Explore how CSN’s booking platform gives independent forwarders multi-carrier access and verified partners.

Frequently Asked Questions

How long will the air cargo capacity shortage last?

Based on current production rates and fleet age data, the squeeze is projected to run through at least 2030. Close to half the global freighter fleet will be at or near retirement age by then – 31% are already there now, and an additional 17% will reach that threshold by 2030 – and new deliveries cannot fill the gap in time.

Why are manufacturers not building more freighters?

Narrowbody passenger aircraft are more profitable for manufacturers. Boeing and Airbus are prioritising those orders. Freighter production is being crowded out. Both manufacturers are also running well below their own stated production targets due to supplier failures and certification delays.

How does this affect air cargo rates?

Rates fell 33% below 2022 levels in 2023, then started recovering as capacity tightened again. With demand consistently outpacing supply and operating costs rising sharply, rates are expected to remain elevated. Industry analysis points to constrained capacity becoming structural rather than cyclical, with the market effectively pricing in sustained scarcity – a view consistent with the supply constraints detailed throughout this article.

What is happening to passenger-to-freighter conversions?

The conversion backlog dropped to around 320 units in 2025. Conversion volumes are forecast at roughly 80 to 95 per year between 2026 and 2029, falling to 67 in 2030, 54 in 2031, 27 in 2032, and just four aircraft by 2034, according to stattimes.com reporting. Airlines cannot retire aircraft they have not replaced, reducing the pool available for conversion.

What can forwarders do to manage air cargo capacity risk?

Segment cargo by criticality. Secure allocation contracts for time-sensitive freight. Build contingency routing plans. Access multiple carriers rather than relying on a single partner. Ask carriers specific questions about fleet age, overbooking rates and contingency options. Speed to quote gives forwarders a competitive edge when capacity is scarce.

Cargo Solutions Network gives independent forwarders access to verified global partners, multi-carrier comparison and A2A or D2D booking, all in one portal. In a market where capacity is scarce and costs are rising, keeping your quoting speed high and your access to verified partners broad is not optional. Quote today at cargosolutionsnetwork.com. Built by freight people, for freight people.

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