Global air cargo kicked off 2026 with 5.6% year-on-year demand growth in January, signalling momentum despite growing geopolitical uncertainty. International operations outperformed expectations with 7.2% expansion, while capacity increases remained modest at 3.6%, pushing the global cargo load factor to 45.1%.
The picture beneath these headline figures reveals a stark regional divide. Africa and the Middle East lead growth, whilst the Americas contract. For freight forwarders navigating these shifts, the message is clear: trade lanes are changing fast.
Regional Performance: Winners and Losers Emerge
African carriers delivered the strongest performance with an exceptional 18.2% demand surge year-on-year, continuing seven consecutive months of growth on the Africa-Asia corridor with a remarkable 41.6% increase. Capacity additions of 6.5% couldn’t match demand, resulting in a 43.5% cargo load factor.
The Middle East posted 9.3% growth, supported by expanded capacity of 9.9% and sustained demand on the Europe-Middle East lane, which grew 10.2%. Asia-Pacific, accounting for 35.9% of global CTKs, recorded 7.8% demand growth against just 3.3% capacity expansion, maintaining the region’s position as the primary growth engine.
European carriers grew 6.9% with capacity up 4.9%, achieving the highest regional cargo load factor at 54.1%. The Europe-Asia trade lane recorded 15.2% growth for the 35th consecutive month, whilst intra-European traffic expanded 1.0%.
The Americas tell a different story. North American carriers contracted 0.5% and Latin America & Caribbean fell 2.0%. The Asia-North America trade lane, representing 23.4% of global CTKs, declined 0.6%, marking the only major declining corridor.
Operating Environment: Mixed Signals Ahead
Supporting factors remain largely positive. Global goods trade expanded 4.9% year-on-year in December 2025, whilst jet fuel prices dropped 6.5%, easing cost pressures. The global manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.8, its highest level in over 18 months, with new export orders reaching 49.9.
Yet uncertainty looms. IATA Director General Willie Walsh cautioned that geopolitical instability in the Middle East and evolving US trade policy could pressure supply chains in coming months.
“The demand for air cargo had a start to 2026, recording 5.6% year-on-year growth in January. At the regional level, the story is more polarised. Carriers in Africa, Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Europe all reported faster growth than the global average. In contrast, carriers in the Americas reported aggregate contractions.”
– Willie Walsh, IATA Director General
2025 Performance: Record Volume Despite Trade Tensions
Full-year 2025 delivered 3.4% demand growth compared to 2024, achieving record cargo volumes. International operations grew 4.2%, outpacing overall performance. Capacity increased 3.7% globally, with international capacity up 5.1%.
E-commerce strength drove volumes throughout the year, even as trading relationships with the US faced rising tariffs and the removal of de minimis exemptions. December 2025 closed 4.3% above December 2024 levels.
Trade patterns shifted dramatically. The Europe-Asia lane posted 10.3% growth, benefiting from diverted volumes as Asia-North America traffic declined 0.8% for the full year. Within-Asia traffic expanded 10.0%, reflecting strengthening intra-regional trade.
Yields fell 1.5% year-on-year but remain 37.2% above 2019 levels, indicating sustained pricing power despite competitive pressure. The sector demonstrated flexibility, adjusting networks to meet changing demand patterns as businesses front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff impositions.
Trade Lane Performance: Where Growth is Happening
January 2026 trade lane data reveals where opportunities concentrate:
- Africa-Asia: +41.6% (7 consecutive months of growth)
- Europe-Asia: +15.2% (35 consecutive months)
- Within Asia: +14.3% (27 consecutive months)
- Middle East-Asia: +12.9% (11 consecutive months)
- Europe-Middle East: +10.2%
- Europe-North America: +3.8% (24 consecutive months)
- Within Europe: +1.0%
- Asia-North America: -0.6% (declining corridor)
Outlook: Moderate Growth Expected for 2026
Growth is forecast to moderate to 2.4% for full-year 2026, returning to historical trends. This projection aligns with anticipated slower expansion in global trade, which grew 2.5% annually in 2024 before accelerating to 4.4% in January-November 2025.
Walsh emphasised the sector’s resilience whilst acknowledging challenges ahead. Long-running uncertainties around US trade policies, combined with Middle East hostilities, will continue weighing on global supply chains.
Whatever trading patterns emerge, reliance on air cargo to keep supply chains running will remain. Carriers are responding by deploying capacity and designing networks for optimum flexibility.
What This Means for Freight Forwarders
The January data confirms what many forwarders already see: traditional lanes are shifting. Capacity is tightening on growth corridors whilst softening on declining routes. Quote-to-book speed matters more than ever.
For SME forwarders competing on these lanes, access to real rates and multi-carrier comparison tools is critical. Complex routing across Africa-Asia or Europe-Asia corridors requires platforms that can assemble multi-leg, mixed-mode options fast.
The World Cargo Symposium scheduled for Lima, Peru from March 10-12, 2026 will address these topics, with digitisation and supply chain adaptability taking centre stage.
Global shipping without the barriers. The data shows where cargo is moving. Now forwarders need the tools to move with it.
