Global air cargo demand rose 5.6% year-on-year in January 2026, marking a start to the year despite mounting geopolitical pressures and shifting trade patterns. International operations expanded even faster at 7.2%, but the data reveals a sharp regional divide that will shape the industry’s trajectory through 2026.
The January figures, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), build on a strong 2025 when the industry grew 3.4% – exceeding early forecasts and achieving record volumes driven by e-commerce strength and supply chain adaptations.
Africa Leads. Americas Contract.
Regional performance in January exposed stark contrasts. African carriers led all regions with 18.2% growth, followed by the Middle East at 9.3%, Asia-Pacific at 7.8%, and Europe at 6.9%. Capacity grew more slowly at 3.6% globally, pushing the cargo load factor up 0.9 percentage points to 45.1%.
North America and Latin America told a different story. North American carriers saw demand fall 0.5%, while Latin America and Caribbean airlines contracted 2.0%. Carriers in the Americas reported aggregate declines even as the rest of the world expanded.
“The demand for air cargo had a start to 2026, recording 5.6% year-on-year growth in January. At the regional level, the story is more polarized. Carriers in Africa, Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Europe all reported faster growth than the global average. In contrast, carriers in the Americas reported aggregate contractions.”
– Willie Walsh, IATA Director General
Trade Lanes Show Divergent Patterns
Most major trade corridors expanded in January, but the results varied sharply by lane. The Africa-Asia route surged 41.6%, extending seven consecutive months of growth. Europe-Asia climbed 15.2%, now 35 months of unbroken expansion. Within Asia, demand rose 14.3% for the 27th consecutive month, and Middle East-Asia grew 12.9%.
The exception: Asia-North America declined 0.6%, continuing a contraction that began in 2025 when the lane fell 0.8% for the full year. That route accounts for 23.4% of global CTKs, making its stagnation a significant drag on overall performance.
The shift reflects ongoing US trade policy uncertainty, tariff pressures, and removal of de minimis exemptions. Europe-Asia cargo surged 10.3% in 2025 as shippers rerouted volumes away from the US market. Asia-Pacific now accounts for 35.9% of global CTKs and remains the primary engine of industry expansion.
Strong Fundamentals. Mounting Risks.
Supporting factors remain broadly positive. Global goods trade grew 4.9% year-on-year in December 2025. The global Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.8 – its highest level in over 18 months and above the 50-point expansion threshold. Jet fuel prices declined 6.5% year-on-year, easing cost pressures.
Yet risks loom. Hostilities in the Middle East threaten to supply chains. US trade policy remains unpredictable. Aircraft delivery delays have added more than USD 11 billion in costs to the industry, limiting flexibility and network expansion.
Key Trade Lane Performance, January 2026:
- Africa-Asia: +41.6%
- Europe-Asia: +15.2% (35 consecutive months)
- Within Asia: +14.3% (27 consecutive months)
- Middle East-Asia: +12.9%
- Europe-Middle East: +10.2%
- Europe-North America: +3.8% (24 consecutive months)
- Asia-North America: -0.6%
2025 Exceeded Forecasts. 2026 Growth Moderates.
Full-year 2025 demand increased 3.4% compared to 2024, significantly stronger than early forecasts. International operations grew 4.2%, and December alone was up 4.3% year-on-year. Asia-Pacific airlines led with 8.4% growth, the strongest among all regions. North America was the only region to contract, down 1.3%.
Yields fell 1.5% year-on-year – the smallest decline in three years – but remain 37.2% above 2019 levels as supply-demand balance normalizes. The industry adapted quickly to front-loaded deliveries ahead of tariff impositions and shifting demand patterns within Asia and between Asia and Europe.
“Air cargo delivered a strong performance in 2025, with demand up 3.4% year-on-year. Global e-commerce strength drove volumes, even as trading relationships with the US faced rising tariffs, the removal of de minimis tariff exemptions, and continuing policy uncertainty. Air cargo rose to the occasion.”
– Willie Walsh, IATA Director General
IATA forecasts global cargo growth of 2.4% in 2026, in line with historical trends. Asia-Pacific is expected to lead at 6%. Growth will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments, but the industry’s ability to deploy capacity flexibly and design networks for adaptability remains a core strength.
Cost Pressures and Sustainability Challenges Persist
Industry-wide net profits are forecast at USD 41 billion in 2026, but thin margins limit airlines’ ability to absorb rising costs. CORSIA compliance is expected to cost the industry around USD 60 billion by 2035.
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production reached 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, accounting for just 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption. SAF prices are often more than double fossil jet fuel – in some markets up to four times higher – dampening demand and slowing adoption.
What This Means for Freight Forwarders
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