Global air cargo pricing continues to climb despite volume fluctuations. Rates reached US$3.10 in week 14, marking a 21% increase year-over-year. At the same time, tonnage fell 4% week-over-week during the period from March 30 to April 5.
The Easter weekend contributed to the weekly decline. Operational disruptions in the Middle East continue to reshape capacity and pricing across key trade lanes.
Middle East Conflict Drives Capacity Constraints
The ongoing situation in the Gulf region has cut available capacity by more than half compared to pre-conflict levels. Tonnage from the area sits at 40% below normal.
Despite this, the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region showed resilience. MESA was the only region posting tonnage growth on a two-week comparison basis, with volumes rising 10% week-over-week and 11% year-over-year.
MESA pricing jumped to an average of $4.07, representing a 59% surge compared to the same period last year. Capacity in the region grew 15% over the previous fortnight as carriers adjusted networks around conflict zones.
A ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran offers some hope. Yet the deal appears fragile, and recovery to normal operations will take time.
APAC Export Lanes See Rate Increases
Asia-Pacific origin shipments showed mixed volume performance but consistent rate growth across major lanes.
Europe-Bound Freight
APAC exports to Europe declined 3% week-over-week and 8% year-over-year. Despite lower volumes, spot rates climbed 3% week-over-week.
China to Europe rates rose 9% to $5.29. Capacity constraints and persistent demand for premium transit options kept pricing elevated.
USA-Bound Freight
APAC tonnage to the USA fell 1% week-over-week. Rates moved sharply higher:
- Hong Kong to USA jumped 15% to $6.07
- China to USA rose 9% to $6.22
- Vietnam to USA increased as part of broader regional trends
The rate increases reflect tight capacity and sustained demand for reliable transit. Forwarders booking multi-leg routes need to move fast to lock competitive pricing before further shifts occur.
March Momentum Shifts After Strong Start to Year
The first quarter started strong. January tonnage grew 8% year-over-year. February followed with 7% growth.
March reversed this trend. Tonnage fell 4% year-over-year, driven by regional declines and geopolitical.
The MESA region saw tonnage drop 21% lower year-over-year in March. Africa was down 13% for the month. These declines offset gains in other regions and halted the positive momentum built earlier in the year.
Pricing Trends Across Regions
Global pricing in March averaged 12% higher year-over-year. The conflict in the Middle East drove much of this increase, but other regions also posted gains:
- MESA: Average rates up 52% in March
- Europe: Average rates up 24% in March
- Africa: Average rates up 18% in March
Week 14 pricing rose 4% overall compared to the previous week. This brought the global average to $3.10, reinforcing the 21% year-over-year gain.
Gulf Area Pricing Volatility
Dubai to USA spot rates dropped 16% to $8.71 in week 14. This decline came despite overall capacity constraints in the Gulf area.
The drop reflects tactical pricing adjustments as carriers navigate uncertain demand patterns and operational restrictions. Forwarders routing cargo through the region should monitor rate volatility closely.
What Drives Current Rate Pressure
Several factors keep pricing elevated across global air cargo markets:
- Persistent inflation: Operating costs remain high for carriers
- Elevated fuel costs: Fuel surcharges continue to impact bottom-line pricing
- Capacity constraints: Middle East conflict removes critical capacity from global networks
- Network adjustments: Carriers reroute flights, adding distance and cost to certain lanes
Recovery to normal capacity levels will take considerable time. Even with the fragile ceasefire in place, airlines need weeks or months to rebuild schedules and restore full operations.
How SME Forwarders Can Navigate Current Conditions
Market volatility creates challenges. It also creates opportunities for agile forwarders who can quote and book quickly.
Speed Wins Business
Quote complex routes fast. Multi-leg, mixed-mode options let you compare carrier pricing in real time. Speed to quote beats competitors who rely on email chains and spreadsheets.
Direct Access to Capacity
Access verified partners and live rates across global networks. Book airport-to-airport (A2A) or door-to-door (D2D) options based on client needs and transit priorities.
Protect Your Margin
Platform fees and subscription costs eat into profit when margins tighten. Zero-fee booking portals let you keep the margin you earn while accessing wholesale capacity on key lanes.
Outlook for Coming Weeks
Week 14 data shows the market remains in flux. Tonnage declines may stabilise as Easter effects fade and regular shipping patterns resume.
Pricing pressure will likely persist. The combination of reduced Gulf capacity, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained demand across APAC export lanes supports elevated rate levels.
Forwarders should expect continued volatility. Watch for:
- Further ceasefire developments in the Middle East
- Capacity announcements from major carriers
- Demand shifts as traditional peak season approaches
- Rate movements on China and Hong Kong export lanes
The ability to compare multi-carrier options and lock rates quickly becomes critical. One screen to price, book and manage jobs gives you the edge when markets move fast.
Final Thoughts
Global air cargo rates jumped 21% year-over-year to $3.10 in week 14. Tonnage fell 4% week-over-week, but pricing stayed firm due to capacity constraints and geopolitical factors.
MESA showed strength with 10% week-over-week volume growth. APAC export lanes saw rate increases to both Europe and the USA. March reversed earlier momentum, posting a 4% year-over-year tonnage decline.
The market rewards speed and flexibility. Quote in minutes. Book direct. Ship today. Keep your margin while delivering competitive service on complex routes.
