October 2025 marked another record month for global air cargo, but the headline numbers mask a significant realignment of trade flows. Demand grew 4.1% year-on-year, reaching the highest October figure on record. International traffic climbed 4.8%.
Yet beneath these gains lies a sharp divergence. The Asia-North America corridor contracted 1.4% in October and remains the only major route showing annual decline at -1.1%. Meanwhile, the Asia-Europe corridor posted double-digit growth of 11.7% for the month and 10.6% year-to-date.
US tariffs drive cargo east
Chinese exporters are rerouting flows away from the US as tariffs bite. Shippers are diversifying sourcing strategies, favouring European markets over direct US shipments. The result is visible in capacity allocation: the transpacific route now represents 51% of supply, down from 55% in 2024. Europe-Asia cargo capacity jumped 21.4%.
African carriers recorded the strongest growth at 16.6%, followed by Asia-Pacific at 8.3%. European carriers grew 4.7% and Middle Eastern operators 5.8%. North American carriers declined 1.9%, while Latin American operators fell 2.5%.
Intra-Asia traffic increased 9.0% in October and 9.4% year-to-date, reflecting both regional manufacturing shifts and e-commerce growth. The transatlantic market rose a modest 2.6%.
Capacity outpaces demand, rates slide
Total capacity grew 5.1% year-on-year in October, outstripping demand growth. Cargo load factors fell to 47.1%, down 0.5 percentage points. Both belly-hold and all-cargo capacity increased 6.4%.
Average unit revenue declined 4.7% to USD 2.46 per kilogram. Excess capacity is putting downward pressure on prices across most lanes. Electronics, pharmaceuticals and e-commerce continue to drive underlying demand, supported by global industrial production growth of 3.7% and World Goods Trade Index volumes up 5.3% in September.
The manufacturing PMI stood at 51.45 in October, confirming firm demand. However, the PMI index for new export orders fell to 48.31, signalling caution ahead. Traffic is expected to grow through the year-end period, driven by seasonal demand and commercial events like Black Friday. Growth may moderate in early 2026 after strong first-quarter 2025 comparisons.
Middle East tensions push shippers to road transport
Escalating Middle East tensions are major air cargo routes between Asia and Europe. Longer transit times and volatility are forcing shippers to reassess options. Long-distance road transport via Central Asia is gaining traction as a viable alternative.
“Disruptions to major air corridors between Asia and Europe are already forcing shippers to reassess their transport options. In situations like this, companies start looking for solutions that offer both speed and predictability. Long-distance road transport between China and Europe can provide exactly that.”
Road transport via Central Asia offers door-to-door transit times of 14 to 18 days between China and Europe. It sits between airfreight and rail in terms of speed but with greater flexibility, as cargo remains on the same transport unit throughout the journey.
The corridor connects Chinese production hubs including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Qingdao and Chengdu with European markets across Germany, France, Benelux, Italy, Spain, the UK and Poland. The route is expanding beyond China to manufacturing centres in Vietnam and Cambodia.
Infrastructure and border procedures have improved across Central Asia, particularly in Kazakhstan. The enhancements have made the corridor more reliable and predictable for shippers seeking alternatives to air and rail.
What this means for forwarders
The air cargo market is fracturing along geopolitical lines. Forwarders need visibility across multiple modes and routes to serve clients effectively. Relying on a single corridor or mode leaves you exposed when disruptions hit.
Rate pressure from overcapacity means margins are tight. Faster quoting and booking workflows become critical to winning business. Comparing airport-to-airport and door-to-door options quickly gives you an edge when clients need alternatives.
The shift to Asia-Europe lanes and the rise of Central Asian road transport highlight the value of modal flexibility. Forwarders who can quote complex routes across air, road and rail will capture more volume as shippers diversify their supply chains.
Capacity will likely remain abundant through Q1 2026, keeping rates under pressure. Focus on speed to quote and operational efficiency to protect margins.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Asia-North America air cargo route declining?
US tariffs on Chinese goods are driving exporters to reroute cargo toward European and other markets. Shippers are diversifying sourcing away from direct US shipments, resulting in a 1.4% decline in October and a 1.1% annual decline on the Asia-North America corridor.
How long does road transport take from China to Europe?
Road transport via Central Asia offers door-to-door transit times of 14 to 18 days between China and Europe. This sits between airfreight and rail in terms of speed but offers greater flexibility because cargo remains on the same transport unit throughout the journey.
What is causing air cargo rates to fall?
Capacity growth of 5.1% is outpacing demand growth of 4.1%, leading to lower load factors and declining prices. Average unit revenue fell 4.7% year-on-year to USD 2.46 per kilogram in October 2025 as excess capacity puts downward pressure on rates across most lanes.
Which air cargo routes are growing fastest?
The Asia-Europe corridor showed the strongest growth among major routes at 11.7% in October and 10.6% year-to-date. Intra-Asia traffic increased 9.0% in October. By region, African carriers recorded the highest growth at 16.6%, followed by Asia-Pacific carriers at 8.3%.
Is road transport via Central Asia reliable?
Infrastructure and border procedures have improved significantly across Central Asia, particularly in Kazakhstan. The corridor now connects major Chinese and Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs with key European markets, offering predictable transit times and full door-to-door service as cargo stays on the same transport unit.
Quote faster, ship smarter
Air cargo flows are shifting fast. Middle East disruptions and US tariffs are rewriting trade patterns. Forwarders need tools that let them compare routes and modes quickly to keep clients moving.
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