TL;DR: Global air cargo spot rates came in at USD 3.12 per kg on average in July 2026, marking a 28% year-on-year gain yet a 6% month-on-month retreat, with annual growth decelerating for a second consecutive month. Shipper appetite for peak season charters is almost non-existent, pointing to a softer second half. Meanwhile, CEVA Logistics has launched new transpacific charter capacity from Vietnam and China, and Amazon is expanding its commercial air cargo service using Sun Country aircraft.
The air cargo market is losing altitude. July 2026 data from Xeneta confirms that while rates remain elevated versus last year, the growth engine is cooling fast. At USD 3.12 per kg, spot rates are still 28% above where they stood twelve months ago – but that headline figure conceals a clear downward trend. Year-on-year growth stood at 41% in May and 38% in June. The deceleration is real, and it is accelerating.
The clearest signal of what is coming? Almost no one is booking peak season charters. Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw put it plainly, noting that across all conversations with their shipper community, only one involved any talk of peak seasons charters, and that this is another signal of the lower expectation for the coming months.
Spot Rate Declines Hit China-Europe Hard in July 2026
China to Western Europe is where the pressure is sharpest. Spot rates on that corridor dropped 22% month-on-month to USD 4.15 per kg in July. Northeast Asia to Europe fell 13% month-on-month. Southeast Asia to Europe dropped 9%. The EU removed its EUR 150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports on 1 July 2026, replacing it with a flat EUR 3 duty per item. That policy shift appears to be biting. The sharper-than-usual rate drops from Asia to Europe suggest e-commerce volumes are already under pressure.
Van de Wouw notes that the steeper China-Europe declines in June and July versus prior years may be a direct result of the new EU customs rules hitting general freight volumes. Adding to the regulatory headwinds, the EU also fined AliExpress a record EUR 550 million for failing to stop the sale of illegal, unsafe, and counterfeit products. Global demand grew just 4% year-on-year in July, down from 8% in June. Capacity grew 1% year-on-year as supply continued recovering from Middle East. The dynamic load factor rose two percentage points to 61%.
CEVA Adds Vietnam and China Charter Capacity to Chicago
While the broader market softens, some operators are moving to lock in transpacific capacity. CEVA Logistics has launched a new Hanoi (HAN) to Chicago (ORD) charter service, operating three times per week on a Boeing 777 full freighter. The route targets Vietnam’s growing manufacturing base, covering sectors including high tech, industrial, retail and e-commerce. CEVA also picks up cargo across multiple Vietnamese gateways including Danang (DAD) and Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) to consolidate onto the Hanoi service.
Alongside the new Hanoi route, CEVA has renewed its Wuxi (WUX) to Chicago charter for a second year, now operated by CMA CGM Air Cargo on a twice-weekly schedule with up to 100 tonnes of capacity per flight. Chicago’s O’Hare gateway is central to both programmes. CEVA’s facility there spans 700,000 square feet, with 350,000 square feet of dedicated freight space, an 8,000-square-foot Free Trade Zone (FTZ) and a 6,000-square-foot dual-chamber cold storage unit. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) options are available on both routes through CEVA’s FORPLANET programme.
Amazon Builds Out Commercial Air Cargo with Sun Country
Amazon is not just managing its own freight. It is now selling spare capacity to third parties. The company launched a commercial air cargo service offering excess capacity to third-party logistics providers. Kuehne+Nagel is already using it to relay e-commerce shipments from China to the United States. Amazon and Sun Country Airlines are also exploring on-demand charter flights for external customers using Sun Country’s narrowbody 737 freighters, which currently operate within Amazon’s domestic network.
Sun Country operates 12 Boeing 737-800 converted freighters for Amazon; per earlier plans the fleet was slated to grow to 20 aircraft in 2025 when Amazon reassigned additional leased aircraft from Atlas Air. Sun Country’s original six-year contract with Amazon ran to May 2026 and was renewable for two to four years at Amazon’s option, so readers should note that the contractual basis for the current arrangement reflects those renewal terms. Amazon’s total fleet stands at around 100 aircraft, the majority being widebody Boeing 767 converted freighters plus six Airbus A330-300s. Sun Country’s cargo revenue grew 12% year-on-year in its most recently reported Q3, with total cargo flight duration in that quarter declining 3.6%.
CSN Perspective
The July data confirms what experienced forwarders already sense on the ground. The rates spike driven by Middle East and e-commerce surges is fading. Airlines will resist dropping rates quickly, as van de Wouw notes, but the trajectory is clear. Forwarders quoting transpacific or Asia-Europe lanes right now need live, accurate rate data. Locking yesterday’s rates into today’s quotes is a margin risk. Use a platform that shows you real-time air cargo rates across multiple carriers and routes so your quotes reflect the market, not last week’s inbox.
The CEVA and Amazon moves show that charter capacity is being built for specific supply chains, not the open spot market. For SME forwarders, that means spot availability on key transpacific lanes could tighten selectively, even as headline rates soften. Knowing where capacity sits, and booking it fast, is the competitive edge right now.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened to global air cargo spot rates in July 2026?
Spot rates averaged USD 3.12 per kg in July 2026, up 28% year-on-year but down 6% month-on-month. Year-on-year growth slowed for a second consecutive month, from 41% in May and 38% in June.
Why are China to Europe air cargo rates falling so sharply?
China to Western Europe spot rates fell 22% month-on-month to USD 4.15 per kg in July 2026. The EU removed its EUR 150 duty-free threshold on 1 July 2026, replacing it with a flat EUR 3 duty per item. This appears to be suppressing e-commerce volumes and putting pressure on general freight rates on that corridor.
What is CEVA doing on transpacific air routes?
CEVA launched a new Hanoi to Chicago charter service, operating three times per week on a Boeing 777 freighter. It also renewed its Wuxi to Chicago charter for a second year, now operated by CMA CGM Air Cargo twice weekly with up to 100 tonnes per flight. Both routes use CEVA’s Chicago O’Hare gateway facility.
Is Amazon offering air cargo services to third parties?
Yes. Amazon launched a commercial air cargo service selling excess capacity to third-party businesses and logistics providers. Kuehne+Nagel is already using it for China-to-US e-commerce shipments. Amazon and Sun Country Airlines are also exploring on-demand charter services for external customers using Sun Country’s 737 freighter fleet.
What is the outlook for peak season air cargo in 2026?
Weak. Xeneta reports almost no shipper appetite for peak season charters, with only one such conversation across their entire shipper community. Demand growth slowed to 4% year-on-year in July, down from 8% in June. Xeneta expects a weaker second half of 2026 compared to the strong start to the year.
Quote transpacific and Asia-Europe air cargo lanes on Cargo Solutions Network. No platform fees for rate discovery. Live rates. Book airport-to-airport (A2A) or door-to-door (D2D) in one portal. Request access at cargosolutionsnetwork.com.
