Airfreight Rates Strong as Q4 2026 Peak Season Nears

Airfreight rates are holding firm. The BAI00 global index gained 0.9% in the week to 21 September 2026 and sits 20.9% above where it was a year ago. With peak season approaching and jet fuel prices more than doubling year-on-year, sellers remain in control of this market.

Demand is doing its part. Global air cargo volumes grew 6% year-on-year in August 2026, following 5% growth in July. Capacity was flat year-on-year in August. That supply-demand gap is keeping rates elevated, even as month-on-month figures tick downward.

Rate Movements Show Diverging Lane Performance

TAC Index highlighted that rate movements are becoming increasingly corridor-specific rather than reflecting a broad market-wide trend. Forwarders should examine it by region rather than reading the market as a single trend. US outbound lanes are leading on a year-on-year basis, reflecting how depressed volumes were during earlier tariff standoffs: Chicago outbound (BAI50) is up 45.7% year-on-year, and it edged up a further 1% week-on-week. European hubs present a mixed picture: London Heathrow outbound (BAI40) jumped 10% week-on-week to sit 11.4% above year-ago levels, while Frankfurt (BAI20) dropped 3.4% week-on-week but remains 21.1% up year-on-year. Asian outbound lanes are running close together: Hong Kong outbound full index (BAI30) gained 0.3% week-on-week, up 19.6% year-on-year, and Shanghai outbound (BAI80) rose 0.6% week-on-week, up 19.7% year-on-year.

Transpacific demand has remained. According to IATA, global air cargo volumes are up 4% year-on-year through July 2026. According to the Freightos Global Freight Outlook (September 2026), transpacific air cargo volumes are up over 9% year-on-year through July 2026, driven by AI hardware and data centre components from Southeast Asia. According to Xeneta’s August 2026 air cargo market report, Northeast Asia to North America averaged USD 5.76 per kg in August, up 2% month-on-month. China to Western Europe averaged USD 3.85 per kg in August, down 6% month-on-month, partly due to reduced e-commerce volumes following the EU de minimis rule change in July 2026.

EU De Minimis Change Reshapes China-Europe E-Commerce Flows

The EU removed its EUR 150 duty-free threshold on 1 July 2026 and introduced a EUR 3 flat per item customs duty. The immediate impact was severe. China’s e-commerce exports to Europe dropped 25% year-on-year in July 2026, the steepest regional decline recorded. Overall Chinese low-value and e-commerce exports fell 11% year-on-year in the same month. According to Xeneta, China to Western Europe spot rates fell 22% month-on-month in July before partially recovering in August, as China-Europe rates moved higher week-on-week and the trade began to recover from the to e-commerce volumes.

The China-US comparison matters. After the US removed its de minimis threshold in 2025, China-US e-commerce shipments initially dipped, then rebounded to stand 23% higher year-on-year by July 2026. Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer, Xeneta, said: “It’s way too early to know what the longer-term impact will be on e-commerce volumes from China-Europe, but a positive longer-term indicator, in any case, is how quickly China-US shipments recovered.” On how shippers are adapting, van de Wouw added: “Right now, I think a lot of e-commerce shippers may be incurring the extra cost in their product while they work out the best way to sell it…” and noted: “I think if you had asked 10,000 Temu users…” whether they would stop purchasing from major Chinese e-commerce platforms given the significant price differential versus European-made goods, the answer would be revealing.

Fuel Costs and Global Disruptions Are Keeping Rates Elevated

Jet fuel prices are up 116.5% year-on-year to 18 September, according to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor. That is the single biggest structural cost driver in the market right now. According to the Freightos Global Freight Outlook (September 2026), Iranian and US strikes have pushed crude oil above USD 100 per barrel for the first time since May 2026, with bunker fuel now 60% above pre-war levels. These costs do not disappear when spot rates dip month-on-month. They become a floor.

Ocean freight is also redirecting cargo to air. Port congestion is worsening globally. According to the Freightos Global Freight Outlook (September 2026), five or more typhoons since July have caused severe congestion at several major Chinese ports. Rhine drought conditions and brief strikes in the Netherlands and Germany are adding delays in North Europe. The Panama Canal Authority reduced daily transits and lowered draft limits in September due to low rainfall between May and August and an approaching El Niño. According to the Freightos Global Freight Outlook (September 2026), Maersk’s CEO stated that congestion is becoming entrenched as volume growth outpaces port capacity increases. When ocean reliability falls, air picks up the shortfall.

CSN Perspective

The gap between year-on-year rate growth and month-on-month rate movement tells you everything about this market. Year-on-year spot rate growth has eased steadily, according to Xeneta: from 41% in May, to 38% in June, 28% in July, and 24% in August. That narrowing trend is real. But Xeneta forecasts full-year 2026 air cargo market growth at 4%, while IATA data shows volumes up 4% year-on-year through July – two separate data points from two organisations covering different periods, both pointing to sustained underlying demand. Capacity is not growing. Fuel costs are structural. Xeneta describes this as a market finding its floor before Q4, and heading into peak season the conditions do not hand shippers easy wins.

For freight forwarders pricing air cargo right now, the key is lane-level clarity. The BAI00 global average masks a 45.7% year-on-year move in Chicago outbound alongside softer China-Europe performance. Forwarders who quote by corridor, not by headline index, quote accurately. That is where margin is won or lost.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where do global airfreight rates stand in September 2026?

The BAI00 global index is up 20.9% year-on-year as of 21 September 2026. Global average spot rates were USD 3.13 per kg in August 2026 (Xeneta), up 24% year-on-year, though down 3% month-on-month. Rates are declining slowly but remain significantly elevated.

Why are airfreight rates still high despite month-on-month declines?

Three factors are holding rates up: jet fuel costs are 116.5% higher year-on-year; air cargo capacity was flat year-on-year in August while demand grew 6%; and global port congestion is pushing time-sensitive cargo onto air. These are structural pressures, not temporary spikes.

What has the EU de minimis rule change done to China-Europe airfreight volumes?

The removal of the EUR 150 duty-free threshold on 1 July 2026 caused China’s e-commerce exports to Europe to fall 25% year-on-year in July. According to Xeneta, China to Western Europe spot rates dropped 22% month-on-month in July before partially recovering in August. Industry analysts expect volumes to recover over time, as happened on the China-US corridor after a similar US policy change in 2025.

Which airfreight lanes are performing strongest year-on-year?

Chicago outbound (BAI50) leads at 45.7% year-on-year growth. Frankfurt outbound (BAI20) is up 21.1%. According to Xeneta’s August 2026 air cargo market report, Northeast Asia to North America spot rates averaged USD 5.76 per kg. According to the Freightos Global Freight Outlook (September 2026), transpacific volumes are up over 9% year-on-year through July 2026, reflecting strong demand driven by AI hardware and data centre components from Southeast Asia.

What is the outlook for airfreight rates in Q4 2026?

Xeneta forecasts full-year 2026 air cargo market growth at 4%, and IATA data confirms volumes were already up 4% year-on-year through July. Month-on-month rate declines are slowing: August fell 3% versus July’s 6% drop. With peak season approaching, flat capacity, and sustained fuel cost pressure, the market is expected to remain a seller’s market into Q4, though year-on-year growth comparisons will continue to narrow.