China-Europe Air Cargo Declines Ease in September

The China-Europe air lane shows signs of easing. September tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe fell 10% year on year, according to WorldACD data. That is still a drop, but it is an improvement on the 14% fall in July and the 15% fall in August.

Forwarders face a market that is busy, costly and uneven by lane.

China-Europe Air Cargo: Where the September Improvement Came From

The slide began on 1 July, when the EU removed its duty-free exemption for low-value parcels and added a €3 charge on packages valued below $150. E-commerce flows into Europe slumped. Year-on-year declines hit 14% in July and 15% in August. Chinese and other operators pulled a significant share of freighter capacity from the lane, with Air China Cargo among the largest cuts, according to Rotate.

September’s 10% fall hides a split. Hong Kong to Europe tonnages dropped 24% year on year. Mainland China to Europe was down only 2%, an improvement on the declines of 5% in August and 9% in July, and mainland volumes have climbed back close to their June levels. The weakness sits in Hong Kong and southern China e-commerce traffic.

China-US Rates Diverge from China-Europe

Rates tell the same story. China to Europe average full-market rates were $5.22 per kg in June, fell to $4.26 per kg in August and were $4.53 per kg in September. That is up 9% year on year, against 30% in June.

China to US is the opposite picture. Tonnages grew 17% year on year in September. Spot rates averaged $6.05 per kg, up 30% on September last year. Aevean reports US air imports of servers, network equipment and other data-centre hardware have roughly doubled this year, making AI infrastructure the main demand engine in North America.

Across origin regions, average full-market rates in September were up year on year everywhere. WorldACD data shows MESA origins up 52%, Africa 27%, Europe 24%, Asia Pacific 23%, North America 18% and Central and South America 8%.

Global Demand, Capacity and the Fuel Problem

Worldwide tonnages rose 3% on August and 9% year on year in September. Growth came from every origin region. Asia Pacific and North America each rose 10%. MESA gained 9%, Europe and Africa 8%, and Central and South America 5%. WorldACD links the strength to demand for high-value and time-sensitive goods, with air freight carrying cargo that has been displaced by wider supply chain. For Q3 as a whole, tonnages rose 3% on Q2 and 6% year on year, while average rates fell 7% on Q2 but were up 24% year on year.

Overall capacity is not the main squeeze. Week 40 (28 September to 4 October) capacity was up about 4% year on year, led by a 7% rise in freighter capacity. But continues around the Gulf: MESA capacity is down around 10% against late February, and the Gulf area is down around 17%. Capacity through Gulf hubs remains well below pre-conflict levels, particularly to Europe and Asia.

Renewed US-Iran clashes near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi advances at the mouth of the Red Sea pushed oil back above $100 a barrel, according to Reuters. IATA data shows jet fuel costs are now roughly double last year’s level. Average worldwide full-market rates were 25% higher year on year in September as fuel prices and disrupted markets and capacity feed through.

What Forwarders Should Do as Fuel Costs Drive Air Cargo Rates

We see this as a market where fuel and, rather than overall capacity, are doing most of the work on cost. According to Aviation Business ME, Qatar Airways says it is not yet passing higher fuel costs on to customers. If that changes, we expect fuel surcharges to become the main lever airlines use to protect margins.

Policy risk adds uncertainty to landed costs. A further US duty on Chinese goods is reportedly on hold pending the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit, and the current trade truce expires in November. For independent forwarders, the lesson is simple. Quote base rate and surcharge separately, and agree non-Gulf contingency routings. As general editorial advice rather than a data-backed forecast, talk to your carriers early about peak-season space.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did China-Europe air cargo volumes fall?

The EU removed its duty-free threshold for low-value parcels on 1 July and added a €3 charge on packages valued below $150. E-commerce volumes from China and Hong Kong dropped sharply as a result.

Is the China-Europe lane recovering?

Partly. The September fall of 10% was smaller than July’s 14% and August’s 15%. Mainland China volumes are close to June levels. Hong Kong remains 24% down.

Why is my quote higher even when some lane rates dipped?

China-Europe rates fell from June to August and only partly recovered in September. But fuel costs and conflict-related are lifting costs globally, and jet fuel is now roughly double last year’s level. Overall worldwide capacity is up year on year, but capacity to and from the Gulf and MESA remains constrained. Ask your provider to show base rate and surcharge separately.

Should I book peak-season space early?

This is our editorial view rather than a finding from the data: with fuel costs high, the trade truce due to expire in November and Gulf capacity still constrained, there is little to gain from leaving booking decisions late. Speak to your provider about your own lanes and timings.

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