Freighter Fleet Forecast: Airbus Sees 3,460 Aircraft by 2045

Airbus announced the updated forecast at the Cargo Facts Symposium. It raises the expected size of the freighter fleet while trimming the outlook for annual air cargo growth, which looks odd at first but makes sense once you read the detail. For forwarders, the numbers show where capacity is likely to come from.

Freighter Fleet Forecast: What Airbus Now Expects

The dedicated freighter fleet grows 46% from 2,360 aircraft in 2026 to 3,460 in 2045. Last year’s forecast put the 2045 figure at 3,420. Airbus now expects a requirement for 2,670 freighters over the period.

The requirement splits into two parts. About 1,580 aircraft replace scrapped older freighters, while demand growth accounts for a further 1,090. Because the 2,670 includes replacements, the net growth in the fleet is smaller: around 1,100 aircraft between 2026 and 2045. Airbus expects freighters such as the A350F, alongside passenger-to-freighter conversions of the A320, A321 and A330 families, to replace previous-generation aircraft.

The growth outlook itself softens slightly. Airbus now expects annual air cargo growth of 3.2%, down from 3.3% in last year’s forecast. The fleet number rises while the demand number dips. Airbus points to the growing importance of freighters for the cargo types expected to lead growth, and for coping with supply chain volatility. In our reading, replacement of ageing aircraft is also a significant part of the picture.

Conversions Outnumber New-Build Freighters

Of the 2,670 aircraft, about 970 are new-build. Around 1,700 are converted from passenger aircraft, so conversions account for most of the freighters required.

Size mix matters too. Single-aisle aircraft make up the largest group at 1,140. Mid-size widebodies account for 860 and large widebodies 670.

• 1,140 single-aisle freighters
• 860 mid-size widebodies
• 670 large widebodies

The single-aisle count deserves attention, as it is the largest category in the forecast.

Regional Demand and What Drives Air Cargo

North America needs 925 freighters. Asia Pacific needs 850. Together that is two-thirds of the 2,670 freighters required, according to Airbus. Europe and CIS follow with 515 aircraft, then Latin America at 165, the Middle East at 125 and Africa at 90.

Asia Pacific remains the region handling the most international air cargo traffic. Within that, its routes to North America are the biggest, growing at 3.8% a year, with Europe next. Airbus also stresses what air freight carries. Here is how it puts the value case:

While air cargo accounts for less than 1% of global trade volume by weight, it carries more than 30% of total trade by value, proving it to be a vital mode of transport for goods requiring the quickest routes to market.

High-tech goods are a big part of that. According to Airbus, the value of computers and high-technology goods in air cargo has doubled over three years, reaching 15% in 2026. Airbus also says air freight has shown remarkable resilience despite high fuel prices, ongoing geopolitical disruptions and supply chain constraints.

What the Freighter Forecast Means for Forwarders

Forecasts are not capacity on your lane next month. But the direction is clear. A large share of the freighters required replace older aircraft, and conversions are expected to account for most of them. In our view, capacity may be uneven as the fleet is renewed.

That favours forwarders who can compare options quickly. Our quote tool is designed to help you compare routing options in one place.

Notice the regional split too. Two regions account for two-thirds of the 2,670 freighters required, so forwarders operating elsewhere may want flexible access to capacity.

Freighter Fleet Forecast FAQ: Airbus 2045 Outlook

How big will the freighter fleet be by 2045?

Airbus forecasts 3,460 dedicated freighters by 2045. That is a 46% rise from 2,360 aircraft in 2026. Last year’s forecast was 3,420.

Why does Airbus lower cargo growth but raise the fleet?

Annual air cargo growth is now 3.2%, down from 3.3%. Airbus points to the growing importance of freighters for the cargo types expected to lead growth and for supply chain volatility. The 2,670 freighters required include 1,580 replacements for retired aircraft and 1,090 to meet demand growth, so net fleet growth is smaller than the requirement.

Will new-build or converted aircraft dominate?

Conversions. Airbus expects about 1,700 passenger-to-freighter conversions against roughly 970 new-build aircraft. Single-aisle types are the largest category at 1,140.

Which regions need the most freighters?

North America needs 925 and Asia Pacific 850, together two-thirds of the 2,670 freighters required. Europe and CIS need 515, Latin America 165, the Middle East 125 and Africa 90.

Which trade lanes are largest?

Asia Pacific remains the leading region for international traffic. Its routes to North America are the largest, growing at 3.8% a year, with Europe next.

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