Global trade proved remarkably resilient in 2025, expanding by 2.4% despite severe policy headwinds. Air cargo emerged as the critical enabler behind this performance, according to IATA’s latest Air Cargo, Trade, and Economic Growth in 2025 report released Wednesday.
The findings reveal how freight forwarders navigated one of the most challenging trade environments in decades. US average applied tariff rates rose to approximately 17%, levels not seen since the 1930s. Yet air cargo helped businesses absorb these shocks and maintain momentum.
Frontloading Shipments Before Tariff Deadlines
Companies rushed to pre-empt tariff increases by accelerating imports into the United States during the first quarter of 2025. Air cargo transported approximately $157 billion worth of these frontloaded shipments.
$193 billionTotal increase in US imports Q1 2025 (26% year-on-year)
Of that $193 billion quarterly increase, air freight carried $157 billion, representing 82% of the total. The value of US air imports surged 81% compared to the prior year, demonstrating how businesses relied on speed to beat policy changes.
This strategic use of air cargo allowed importers to lock in lower tariff rates before new restrictions took effect. The approach proved essential for maintaining margins in an environment where policy uncertainty dominated planning cycles.
Supply Chain Restructuring at Speed
Beyond frontloading, air cargo enabled rapid supply chain diversification. US importers shifted sourcing away from heavily tariffed partners and redirected volumes to alternative markets.
The data reveals stark differences between expanding and contracting trade routes:
- On expanding US trade lanes worth $213 billion, air cargo carried $174 billion (82%)
- On contracting lanes worth $257 billion, air typically moved $77 billion (30%)
- For European trade, air cargo captured 48% of gains on expanding routes versus just 3% of losses on shrinking lanes
This pattern shows how air freight supports growth rather than decline. When companies to new suppliers or markets, they need speed. Air cargo delivers that speed.
“Air cargo is a structural component of global economic resilience. In 2025, it helped businesses absorb tariff shocks, enabled rapid trade restructuring, and supported the expansion of artificial intelligence investment.”
– Julia Seiermann, IATA Head of Industry Analysis
Powering the AI Investment Boom
Air cargo transported more than two-thirds of AI-related goods globally in 2025. This included servers, data storage units, memory chips and other high-value technology components essential for AI infrastructure buildout.
The numbers tell the story of how critical air freight became for the AI sector:
- AI-related goods consignments grew 20% year-on-year
- These goods accounted for 53.5% of total air-transported trade value
- Yet they represented just 7% of air cargo volume
53.5% Share of air cargo value from AI-related goods despite only 7% of volume
The extreme value density made air cargo the only practical option. Companies investing in AI infrastructure could not afford logistics delays. Air freight enabled investment to translate into economic activity immediately.
Seiermann noted: “The rapid increase in demand for AI-related goods in 2025 was met thanks to air cargo, allowing investment to translate into economic activity rather than being constrained by logistics. As economies increasingly and strategically rely on high-value technology goods, air cargo will continue to play a critical role in ensuring their timely delivery.”
Small Volume, Massive Value
Air freight accounts for less than 1% of global trade by volume. Yet its share by value far exceeds that ratio, particularly for electronics, pharmaceuticals and advanced technology.
This characteristic makes air cargo essential for freight forwarders serving high-value sectors. The economics work when speed and reliability justify premium transport costs.
For SME forwarders, access to air cargo capacity on key lanes creates competitive advantage. The ability to quote and book complex multi-leg air routes fast separates winners from those stuck in email chains.
Trade Exceeded Forecasts Despite Policy Headwinds
Global GDP expanded 3.2% in 2025, outperforming expectations given the tariff environment. Trade growth of 2.4% also exceeded initial World Trade Organization forecasts.
IATA’s analysis credits air cargo with helping sustain this performance. The sector provided flexibility when businesses needed it most. Companies could adapt sourcing, test new markets and maintain inventory flows despite policy volatility.
What This Means for Freight Forwarders
The 2025 performance demonstrates why air cargo capability matters for independent forwarders. Three lessons stand out:
- Speed wins when policy creates urgency. Frontloading drove massive volumes. Forwarders who could quote and execute fast captured share.
- High-value goods need air solutions. The AI boom showed how value density favours air freight. More sectors will follow this pattern.
- Supply chain pivots happen quickly. Trade route restructuring occurred in quarters, not years. Forwarders need multi-carrier, multi-leg quoting capability to compete.
Access to global air cargo capacity, combined with door-to-door assembly and fast quoting, positions forwarders to win in volatile environments. The giants have these tools. SMEs need them too.
Looking Ahead to 2026
IATA expects trade policy uncertainty to persist into 2026 and beyond. AI-related demand shows no signs of slowing. Both factors point to continued critical importance for air cargo.
Seiermann stated: “In a context of continued trade policy uncertainty and sustained demand from AI-related sectors, its ability to support rapid adjustment and structural adaptation will remain critical.”
For cargo solutions providers, this environment rewards those who can move fast, quote complex routes efficiently and access wholesale capacity without territory limits. The market favours forwarders built for speed and flexibility.
Air cargo proved its value in 2025 by enabling businesses to navigate. That capability will remain essential as long as policy volatility and high-value tech trade drive global commerce.
