The Iran conflict has triggered the largest supply in global oil market history. Daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down 95%. Around 750 vessels sat stranded when fighting began. Both ocean and air networks face unprecedented strain.
For freight forwarders, this isn’t temporary turbulence. It’s a structural reset demanding immediate action.
The Chokepoint Crisis: By the Numbers
The Strait of Hormuz normally handles 20-21 million barrels of oil daily-roughly 20% of global consumption. Since conflict erupted, only 100 ships have transited since early March. Before the war, 138 ships passed through each day.
Insurance markets reacted instantly. Premiums on Gulf voyages jumped to 3.5% to 7.5% of vessel value. War-risk surcharges now apply even to routes nowhere near the conflict zone.
Major carriers including MSC, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd issued End-of-Voyage declarations. They’ve stopped accepting bookings to the Arabian Gulf entirely.
Rerouting Reshapes Transit Times and Costs
Ships now detour around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. This adds 10-15 days to standard voyages. The capacity crunch absorbs roughly 2.5 million TEU of global capacity, creating equipment shortages worldwide.
Jebel Ali-a hub handling 15.5 million TEU annually-has seen vessel calls drop 40%. On-time reliability collapsed to just 10%. Average delays on Middle East trade lanes now exceed 6.7 days.
“The IEA described the current crisis as the largest supply in the history of the global oil market, surpassing the shocks of the 1970s.”
Fuel costs compound the pain. Brent crude spiked above $113 per barrel, briefly touching $119. Diesel prices jumped over 30%. Jet fuel prices more than doubled since conflict began on February 28.
Air Cargo: The Safety Valve Under Pressure
When ocean routes fail, shippers turn to air. But Middle Eastern aviation hubs are buckling under strain.
Major airports including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi were closed due to the conflict. Dubai ranks 8th globally for cargo volume. Doha sits at 12th. Their closure eliminated critical capacity.
Gulf carriers-Qatar Airways, Emirates SkyCargo and Etihad-control approximately 13% of global air cargo capacity. Over 27,000 flights were cancelled across these three airlines since fighting started.
Time-sensitive goods including electronics, pharmaceuticals and automotive parts are migrating from ocean to air. But capacity isn’t there to absorb the shift.
Airlines Adapt-But Not Fast Enough
Carriers responded by boosting direct routes. Direct capacity between China/Hong Kong and Europe increased 26% compared to pre-conflict levels. Capacity via non-Gulf stopovers rose 14%.
Rerouted freighters add 2-4 hours of flight time. Fuel burn increases. Costs rise. Marco Bloemen, managing director of Aevean, noted carriers adapted quickly-but demand still outstrips supply.
Stefan Paul, CEO of Kuehne+Nagel, warned: “There could be a transfer from maritime transport to air transport to bypass maritime bottlenecks.”
Air cargo rates reflect the squeeze:
- South Asia to North America: $6.00/kg (up 50%)
- South Asia to Europe: $4.00/kg (up 50%)
- Southeast Asia to Europe: Over $4.00/kg (up 20%)
- China to United States: Over $7.00/kg (up 20%)
Energy Markets Drive Inflation Across Europe
Europe faces rising energy costs that threaten economic growth. British wholesale gas prices surged to 171p per therm. UK inflation could head toward 5%.
Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub accounts for nearly 20% of global LNG trade. Its forces European buyers to compete for spot cargoes at inflated prices.
The International Energy Agency committed 400 million barrels to global markets. The U.S. announced insurance guarantees and naval escorts for Strait transit. But markets remain volatile.
What Forwarders Must Do Now
This demands strategic shifts, not tactical tweaks.
1. Shift to Just-in-Case Strategy
Build inventory buffers. Stress-test lead times against 6-week models. Secure capacity 4-6 weeks in advance-not days.
2. Explore Hybrid Logistics Models
Sea-air solutions balance cost against reliability. Ship to a stable hub, then fly the final leg. Alternative corridors through Central Asia, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey are seeing increased interest.
3. Diversify Your Network
Single-source routing is dead. Build relationships across multiple carriers and modes. Chinese-owned vessels are negotiating passage agreements with Iranian authorities for Tehran-controlled corridors.
4. Communicate Proactively
Clients need visibility. Set realistic expectations. Update them before they ask. Time-sensitive cargo requires early conversations about mode shifts and cost implications.
Regulatory Changes Add Complexity
Trade policy shifts compound operational challenges. The EU will eliminate duty-free access on shipments under 150 euros starting July 1, 2026. France introduced a temporary €2 per item tax on parcels under 150 euros from non-EU countries from March 1.
In the U.S., more than 2,000 lawsuits have been filed at the Court of International Trade following Supreme Court rulings on presidential tariffs. Over $130 billion was spent on tariffs by importers. About 300,000 importers are affected.
The Path Forward
Air cargo started 2026 strong. Volumes increased 5.6% year-on-year in January, with 7.2% growth on international routes. Available capacity reached 49.7 billion tonne-kilometres-the highest January level ever recorded.
But the Iran conflict erased those gains. Chargeable weight dropped 20% during the second and third weeks of February across affected lanes.
This isn’t a temporary shock. It’s a structural reset in global trade infrastructure. Freight network design, production capacity siting and modal strategies all need rethinking.
Forwarders who adapt now-with diversified networks, hybrid solutions and transparent client communication-will emerge stronger. Those who wait for “normal” to return will fall behind.
The trade map has been redrawn. Quote smart. Book fast. Ship where capacity exists. Win by adapting faster than the unfolds.
