Lithium-ion battery incidents in air cargo have surged 40 percent since 2021, driven by explosive e-commerce growth, poor battery quality and fragmented supply chain accountability. The latest data from UL Standards & Engagement, released March 10, 2026, shows incidents rising at an average yearly rate of 9 percent.
For freight forwarders handling battery-powered consumer goods, the message is clear: risk is rising, and the liability chain is complex.
The Scale of the Problem
UL’s Thermal Runaway Incident Program tracked incidents from 2021 through 2025, conducting interviews with 36 cargo sector participants between June and October 2025. A parallel consumer survey reached more than 12,000 U.S. adults.
The findings are stark. More than half of incidents with known origins begin at a handful of Asian airports that also handle the bulk of global battery shipments. Geographic disparities in manufacturing quality, regulatory oversight and enforcement rigor amplify risk across the entire supply chain.
Bob McClelland, transportation safety lead at UL, put it bluntly:
“Lithium batteries power modern life, but they also present a growing and preventable risk in air cargo.”
Why Incidents Are Rising
Three factors drive the spike:
1. E-Commerce Demand
Consumer appetite for low-cost battery-powered products has exploded. Twenty-nine percent of U.S. flyers now travel with power banks. Speed and cost dominate purchasing decisions, often at the expense of safety and compliance.
2. Poor Battery Quality
When a lithium-ion battery enters thermal runaway, it triggers an almost unstoppable chemical reaction that releases toxic materials and can ignite. Quality control varies dramatically by region and manufacturer. Batteries that meet safety standards have proven safer and less prone to fire, but enforcement remains uneven.
A suspected power bank caused catastrophic damage to an Air Busan plane in South Korea, underlining the real-world consequences of lax standards.
3. Fragmented Accountability
Batteries pass through many hands: manufacturers, wholesalers, freight forwarders, consolidators, postal networks, third-party logistics providers and airlines. The UL report found that this fragmentation creates a system built on trust, where each participant assumes previous parties followed the rules.
“When safety issues emerge, the fragmentation offers every stakeholder a scapegoat further upstream or downstream. The complexity of the battery supply chain makes it difficult to pinpoint problems, let alone arrive at solutions.”
Small and individual shippers often lack expertise in hazardous materials regulations. They rely on carriers to identify improperly declared shipments, but cargo airlines are left managing risks they did not cause and often cannot fully recognise.
The Geographic Risk Factor
Geography is a predictor of cargo risk. UL researchers note that more than half of known-origin incidents begin in a handful of Asian airports, contributing to industry perceptions that regional differences in battery quality, shipper behaviour and third-party involvement amplify other risks.
Manufacturing quality, regulatory oversight and enforcement structures vary significantly between regions. This creates a patchwork system where weak links in one jurisdiction affect the entire global network.
What Needs to Change
UL’s report provides three central recommendations to reverse this trend:
1. Establish Clear Accountability
The supply chain needs uniform rules, training requirements and enforcement structures. Responsibility must be clearly assigned and enforceable at each handoff point. Plausible deniability must end.
2. Expand Shipper Education and Global Coordination
Emily Brimsek, senior manager of qualitative insights at UL, said interviews consistently pointed to the need for stronger shared responsibility for safety. Smaller shippers need more guidance, yet they are not effectively accessing current guidance from regulators and carriers.
Training must be practical, accessible and mandatory. Regulators and industry groups must coordinate globally to close gaps in oversight.
3. Treat Safety and Cost as Interconnected
The report warns that cutting corners on battery safety, packaging or testing creates greater long-term financial, operational and reputational risk. Shipping batteries that meet safety standards can reduce risk.
Allianz Commercial warned on March 6 that fire had become an elevated risk to global business due to lithium-ion batteries. Forwarders and shippers who prioritise speed over compliance are playing a dangerous game.
What Forwarders Should Do Now
For freight forwarders handling battery shipments, the takeaway is operational:
- Verify battery quality and compliance documentation at intake, not after booking
- Train operations teams on hazardous materials regulations and thermal runaway risks
- Flag shipments originating from high-risk regions for additional scrutiny
- Work with partners who meet safety standards and share accountability for compliance
- Document every handoff to protect against liability when issues arise downstream
The rise in incidents is not coincidental. It reflects identifiable gaps in battery quality, shipper awareness, regulatory oversight and accountability. These systemic weaknesses need to be addressed more effectively to reverse this concerning trend.
The Bottom Line
Lithium-ion batteries are essential to modern commerce. But the data is clear: incidents are rising, risks are fragmenting, and accountability is diluted.
Forwarders operate in the middle of a supply chain where trust is assumed but rarely verified. The operational reality is that cargo airlines, consolidators and forwarders are managing risks they did not create.
The solution is not to stop shipping batteries. It is to ship them right: with clear standards, enforced accountability and shared responsibility across every link in the chain.
Speed matters. So does safety. The two are not incompatible, but only if the industry acts now.
