Ocean and air cargo are heading in opposite directions. As we move deeper into 2026, the two modes face contrasting supply-demand fundamentals that will reshape how freight forwarders price, route and win business.
DHL Global Forwarding reports show air freight holding steady with structural capacity constraints, while ocean freight braces for a major recalibration as Suez Canal routing resumes after more than a year of diversions around southern Africa.
Suez Canal Set to Reshape Ocean Freight
The Houthi threat has vastly diminished. CMA CGM and regional operators are now running limited services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal into the Mediterranean. A full-scale return of liner services would mark a dramatic shift for a market adapted to southern Africa transits.
Those diversions swallowed around 10-15 percent of effective global container shipping capacity in 2025. As vessels return to the canal, effective capacity will rise faster than nominal capacity, even though nominal fleet growth is forecasted at just four percent in 2026, down from seven percent in 2025.
“A full-scale return of liner services to the Red Sea would initially be, with increased risks of port congestion, landside capacity constraints, and short-term cost implications. However, once networks stabilize, it will benefit shippers through faster transit times, and the trade is likely to become more competitive on pricing.”
– Bjoern Schoon, Senior Vice President, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific
The reshuffling will take three to six months. European ports face severe congestion risks as routing patterns normalise. Once stable, shippers will see faster transit times and more competitive pricing as carriers with orderbooks equivalent to 30-50 percent of their current fleets compete for volume.
The EU ETS now covers 100 percent of emissions for maritime transport voyages in and out of Europe since January 2026. ETS charges have risen by another 35 to 50 percent in 2026, adding cost pressure carriers will pass to shippers.
Air Freight Holds Steady Despite DHL Underperformance
Air cargo finished 2025 with three to five percent growth in demand. Global air cargo tonnage grew eight percent year-over-year in January 2026, with capacity rising approximately five percent in February 2026.
Yet DHL’s airfreight volumes told a different story. Q4 2025 volumes totalled 459,000 tons, down two percent from Q4 2024’s 468,000 tons. Full year 2025 airfreight volumes were 1.8 million tonnes, down one percent year on year, underperforming a market that grew by approximately four percent.
€1.6bn DHL Q4 airfreight revenue, down 10.3% year on year
Airfreight revenue in Q4 was €1.6 billion, down 10.3 percent year on year. Lower freight rates driven by eased capacity constraints and Red Sea situation stabilisation were the primary cause. Competitors Kuehne+Nagel and DSV significantly outperformed DHL, with K+N growing seven percent and DSV growing 44 percent (including DB Schenker acquisition).
DHL implemented significant structural changes including air network resets in Europe and the US, fleet optimisation, and exiting the Polar Air Cargo joint venture with Atlas. Despite GFF division challenges, the overall DHL Group exceeded financial targets through cost management, with Group EBIT up 3.7 percent to €6 billion.
“Active capacity management and structural cost improvements enabled us to exceed our financial targets. At the same time, we continue to invest in global growth markets and sectors. Economic volatility will persist in 2026. We are very well-positioned both globally and locally.”
– Tobias Meyer, DHL Group Chief Executive
Asia-Europe and Intra-Asia Drive Air Cargo Growth
Asia-Europe and intra-Asia lanes remain the primary growth engines for air freight. Manufacturing concentration, e-commerce exports, and supply chain realignment toward Southeast Asia are supporting demand.
Asia-to-Europe rates rose for eight consecutive weeks to $4.70 per kilogram. China-to-Europe reached $5.21 per kilogram. Mainland China-Europe rates increased eight percent year-on-year in Week 50.
Key demand drivers include:
- AI component exports expanded around 20 percent year-on-year
- South Korea’s semiconductor surge close to 42 percent
- Datacenter demand helping offset slower international e-commerce volumes
- Asia Pacific air cargo demand increased 11 percent
While overall capacity is increasing, corridor-specific constraints and aircraft delivery delays are creating localised tightness on key trade lanes. Passenger belly-hold accounts for 66 percent of total air cargo capacity, while dedicated freighter capacity is down seven percent year-on-year.
Regulatory Headwinds and Operational Disruptions
Multiple regulatory and operational challenges are constraining usable capacity and lifting carrier costs in 2026.
Many EU fuel suppliers missed the February 14, 2026 SAF documentation deadline under ReFuelEU Aviation, creating compliance headaches for carriers. Over 3,400 flights were cancelled or diverted due to Middle East airspace closures affecting Iran, Iraq, UAE, Qatar, and Israel.
Severe winter disruptions, strikes in Germany, airspace restrictions and tighter EU ETS carbon rules are lifting carrier costs and constraining usable capacity. The EU top court upheld €776 million in penalties on airlines in the cargo cartel case, though Lufthansa avoided fines.
Capacity Expansion in Strategic Regions
Major carriers are expanding capacity in strategic regions despite market headwinds. DHL is scaling Brussels as a pharma gateway with 45,000 square meters of GDP-compliant facilities.
Emirates SkyCargo is adding two additional weekly freighters to India and a dedicated weekly freighter to Dhaka from April 2026. LATAM Airlines will launch first-ever nonstop services from São Paulo to Amsterdam, Brussels and Cape Town in 2026.
What This Means for Freight Forwarders
The ocean market recalibration will impact air cargo in complex ways. Sea-air hybrid solutions may reduce as ocean transit times improve. Yet air freight could see temporary demand spikes as shippers avoid port congestion during the Suez Canal transition.
“2026 is expected to be a year of very different realities for shippers depending on mode, geography and routing. Shippers that embrace agility-operational and environmental-will weather the storm and emerge stronger in a market defined by resilience and responsibility.”
– Niki Frank, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific
Pre-Chinese New Year demand drove early February volume spikes in Asia, followed by typical post-holiday softening with expected March recovery. Volatility persists due to weather disruptions, evolving trade policies, and reactive supply chain behaviours, making demand patterns increasingly unpredictable.
The Eurozone PMI shifted from contraction in January 2026 to expansion in February 2026, with new orders returning to growth. US air cargo remains stable though Transpacific volumes are softening except for datacenter and capital equipment shipments.
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Ocean and air freight face similar geopolitical challenges but contrasting supply-demand balances entering 2026. The potential reopening of the Suez Canal could add significant capacity to ocean freight markets, potentially leading to softer rates and increased competition among carriers.
Air cargo maintains resilient demand with structurally constrained capacity, establishing a market floor for rates. Shippers who embrace operational agility across modes, regions, and operational demands will be better positioned to succeed in 2026.
