The air cargo industry has moved past seasonal predictability. Trade policy shifts, tariff uncertainty and new demand drivers are forcing freight forwarders to work faster, quote smarter and adapt in real time.
2026 opened with carryover demand from December that defied the traditional post-peak slowdown. Shippers booked capacity into early January as volatility replaced rhythm across both air and ocean freight. The old playbook no longer applies.
Tariffs reset the global cargo map
The United States introduced a temporary 10 per cent global tariff for 150 days, creating immediate pressure on cross-border flows. High-value cargo including semiconductors, AI servers and automotive components face potential redirection back toward China for US exports in 2026.
“The defining moment of 2025 for the airfreight industry was the series of tariff announcements, suspensions and eventual adjustments that reshaped global trade flows.”
– Greg Schwendinger, President, American Airlines Cargo
Urgent shipments of electronics and semiconductor equipment from Taiwan to the United States placed immediate pressure on available capacity after Lunar New Year. India’s export activity is expected to surge toward the end of March as companies accelerate shipments before the fiscal year closes. Forwarders are advising exporters to secure bookings at least two weeks in advance.
Tariff uncertainty is likely to reshape intra-Asia traffic. Regional volumes in 2025 were supported by raw material movements linked to China+1 manufacturing strategies in Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia. If tariff treatment becomes uniform across countries, shippers may shift back to exporting directly from China instead of routing through Southeast Asia, softening intra-Asia demand compared with 2025.
New demand drivers beyond e-commerce
Data centres and life sciences are reshaping network priorities. Massive volumes are moving from isolated points in Asia, especially into the United States, creating concentrated demand on specific lanes.
“There’s now a second big hype, which is data centres. Massive volumes are coming out of very isolated points in Asia, especially into the U.S.”
– Henk Venema, Head of Global Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding
The US suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese exports in May 2025 caused a sharp drop of more than 40 per cent in e-commerce air imports from China month-over-month. By July 2025, Asia-North America air volumes recovered to 2024 levels through e-commerce adjustments and increased general cargo from markets like Vietnam.
China’s exports by value increased more than 5 per cent year-over-year through November 2025 despite the sharp drop in exports to the US, demonstrating successful market diversification. European Union countries announced intentions to close their de minimis exceptions by 2027, with the possibility of implementation as early as 2026, creating further demand volatility ahead.
Capacity is tight where it counts
Carriers are deploying freighter capacity based on yield optimisation rather than simply responding to demand. This strategic approach maintains elevated rates and tight capacity on profitable routes, particularly across transatlantic and Transpacific lanes.
American Airlines Cargo is expanding with delivery of 11 Boeing 787-9 aircraft, while their winter schedule features the highest widebody capacity since 2022. Air Charter Service has managed to grow year-on-year despite dampening demand, leveraging a network of 40 offices to react to changing traffic lanes.
“Carriers have become much more savvy in deploying their assets through a yield lens. They’re optimising capacity based on profitability and regional demand, particularly across transatlantic and Transpacific lanes, which has limited freighter availability despite softening demand elsewhere.”
– Matthew Castle, Global Vice President of Forwarding Products & Services, C.H. Robinson
In Australia, passenger belly capacity is gradually recovering but freighter space remains constrained. Logistics providers recommend pre-booking shipments at least five days prior to departure to secure slots.
Maritime disruptions keep air relevant
Red Sea diversions absorbed approximately 9 per cent of global container capacity by keeping ships at sea longer throughout 2025. Multiple major container carriers have taken steps toward resuming Red Sea transits since November 2025, increasing the likelihood of return in 2026.
This shift will initially cause significant congestion and delays at European hubs plus upward rate pressure. Once congestion unwinds, it will exacerbate oversupply. Meanwhile, maritime disruptions including Red Sea and Suez Canal routing issues continue to create short-term spikes in air shipments when ocean transit becomes uncertain.
Multimodal air-sea movements have become more common, creating demand for tailored insurance products that address transshipment exposure and operational complexities. High-value and sensitive air cargo such as perishables, pharmaceuticals and electronics continues to drive demand for more granular, track-and-trace-enabled coverage offerings.
Rates remain elevated on a new baseline
Airfreight rates stayed remarkably stable despite volume shifts in 2025, following seasonal patterns and staying on par with 2024 levels. China to US air rates increased 1 per cent for the year, while China to Europe air rates rose 2 per cent.
Operational costs have grown since the pre-pandemic timeframe. Carriers have adapted by becoming more sophisticated in how they manage capacity and yield. High aircraft utilisation rates have helped maintain capacity despite production bottlenecks at Boeing and Airbus, limiting immediate pressure on rates.
Global air cargo grew 4 per cent year-to-date through October 2025, following 11 per cent annual growth in 2024. IATA projects 2.6 per cent global air cargo volume growth in 2026, while S&P projects a 2 per cent contraction in US ocean imports for the same period.
Winter weather adds operational friction
Severe winter weather across parts of Europe led to temporary runway closures, slower ground handling and flight cancellations at major hubs. These disruptions compound the existing capacity tightness on key lanes, forcing forwarders to build buffer time into delivery commitments.
The air freight market remained soft before and during the Chinese New Year period compared with previous years, with freight rates trending on the lower side. However, the post-holiday surge in electronics and semiconductor shipments quickly absorbed available capacity.
What this means for freight forwarders
Traditional seasonal rhythms have been effectively dismantled. Leaders from American Airlines Cargo, Air Charter Service, DHL Global Forwarding and Breeze indicate agility is now the core strategy.
The industry is embracing digital transformation with AI-driven analytics, IoT tracking and blockchain documentation to enable faster capacity redeployment and better forecasting. Forwarders are leveraging data more effectively than ever, using advanced capacity forecasting to identify optimal solutions close to departure.
A US Supreme Court decision expected by July on tariff validity creates uncertainty for 2026 freight seasonality. A more stable tariff landscape suggests a likely return to normal patterns if tariffs remain in place, but the industry is preparing for continued from geopolitical developments, potential tariff adjustments, supply chain diversification and nearshoring trends.
The interdependence between ocean and air freight modes is more pronounced than ever. multimodal planning is no longer optional. It is the baseline requirement for competing in a market where volatility is permanent and speed to quote determines who wins the cargo.
