TL;DR: A 12-day Iran-Israel conflict triggered immediate across global energy, commodity, and freight markets. Brent crude rose 25%, jet fuel jumped 58%, and European gas futures spiked 56%. The Strait of Hormuz, carrying 20% of global oil and 20% of global LNG daily, remains the single greatest risk point. Freight operators face longer routes, emergency surcharges, and multi-commodity exposure that will not unwind quickly.
Twelve days of missile and drone exchanges between Iran and Israel pushed global supply chains into crisis mode. Strikes hit refineries in Tehran and Haifa, damaged the South Pars gas field, and forced carriers to pull back from the Persian Gulf. The commercial fallout spread fast and wide.
This was not a contained regional incident. It was a live stress test of the world’s most critical energy corridor. The results exposed how little redundancy exists when the Strait of Hormuz comes under threat.
Strait of Hormuz: The Numbers Behind the Risk
Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. That is 25% of global seaborne oil trade and 20% of global LNG trade moving through a single narrow channel. For Asia, the dependency is even sharper: 84% of the region’s oil and 83% of its LNG transit this route. China alone imports around 11 million barrels per day, with roughly half coming from the Middle East. Qatar supplied 33.4% of China’s LNG imports between January and April 2025.
Wood Mackenzie has mapped three scenarios for a prolonged Strait closure and describes it as the greatest single risk to global energy markets today. The IAEA has stated clearly: even a limited closure would have a major impact on oil and gas markets. During the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq Tanker War, ships were attacked regularly but the Strait never fully closed. Iran retains the ability to mine it as a measure of last resort. That option has not gone away with the ceasefire.
Commodity Prices: What Moved and By How Much
Markets did not wait for a full closure. Brent crude rose from $73 to $91 per barrel between 27 February and 11 March, a 25% increase. European gas futures climbed 56%, briefly exceeding €60 per megawatt-hour. Jet fuel rose 58% in under two weeks. Helium spiked 35% after a drone attack shut down Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, which supplies 30% of global helium. Urea prices rose 26%; over 33% of global urea shipments move through the Strait. Sulfur climbed 23%; the UAE accounts for 23% of global sulfur exports.
The GCC region is not just an energy supplier. It is upstream in food, manufacturing, and healthcare chains. Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest ammonia exporter. Ma’aden supplies 20% of global phosphate fertiliser trade. Saudi Arabia and Iran together produce around 20% of global methanol. Polyethylene rose 15%, polypropylene 16%, primary aluminium 9%. These are not niche inputs. They sit inside supply chains most shippers rarely think about until prices jump.
Freight Operations: Rerouting, Surcharges, and Air Cargo
Maersk suspended all Strait of Hormuz passages and rerouted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. That decision added 8 to 15 days to Asia-Europe container transit times. CMA CGM introduced emergency conflict surcharges of $2,000 per 20-foot container on specified Middle East cargo from 28 February, plus additional fuel surcharges of $150 per TEU from 16 March. On a 40-foot container, those charges represent an 11% to 14% increase on baseline rates. New bookings to the Middle East were suspended by multiple carriers.
Air freight faced its own. Dubai, the world’s busiest airport by international passenger traffic, shut down completely and had only partially resumed operations by 7 March. That is not a minor inconvenience for air cargo operators. Dubai is a major transhipment hub for time-sensitive freight across Asia, Europe, and Africa. Operators relying on connections through Dubai faced delays, cargo holds, and repricing across multiple trade lanes simultaneously.
CSN Industry Perspective
The Iran-Israel conflict made one thing clear: single-source dependencies and thin inventory positions are a liability, not an operational efficiency. Forwarders and shippers who had multiple routing options, diversified carrier relationships, and live rate visibility reacted faster. Those locked into single-lane commitments or long-cycle procurement cycles absorbed the full cost of. The Oliver Wyman analysis is direct on this: exposure management does not stop at ceasefire. Insurers, carriers, traders, and buyers reopen flows at their own pace. Commercial typically runs days to weeks beyond any halt in hostilities.
For independent freight forwarders, this environment demands speed and flexibility. You need access to live rates, alternative routing options, and the ability to requote fast when conditions shift. That is exactly what a free, open network like CSN’s booking portal is built to provide: multi-carrier comparison, airport-to-airport (A2A) and door-to-door (D2D) options, and zero platform fees eating into your margin when costs are already rising everywhere else.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter to freight?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel between Iran and Oman. It carries approximately 20% of global petroleum liquids, 25% of seaborne oil trade, and 20% of global LNG every day. There is no comparable bypass route for LNG. Any closure or directly increases energy costs and transit times for Asia-Europe and Asia-Pacific trade lanes.
Which commodities saw the biggest price increases during the conflict?
Jet fuel rose 58% in under two weeks. European gas futures climbed 56%. Brent crude rose 25%. Helium spiked 35% after the Ras Laffan shutdown. Urea rose 26%, sulfur 23%, polypropylene 16%, polyethylene 15%, and primary aluminium 9%. The increases spread across energy, chemicals, fertilisers, and metals.
How did carriers respond to the Strait of Hormuz threat?
Maersk rerouted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 8 to 15 days to Asia-Europe transit times. CMA CGM introduced emergency conflict surcharges of $2,000 per 20-foot container plus $150 per TEU in fuel surcharges. Multiple carriers suspended new bookings to the Middle East. Qatar asked its LNG vessels to wait outside the Strait during peak tensions.
Why does China face particular energy security risk from Middle East conflict?
China imports around 11 million barrels of crude per day, making it the world’s largest crude importer. Approximately half comes from the Middle East. Around 90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China, accounting for roughly 15% of China’s total crude imports in 2024. Qatar supplied over 33% of China’s LNG imports in early 2025. This concentration means any Strait hits China disproportionately hard.
Does a ceasefire mean supply chains return to normal immediately?
No. Insurers reassess war risk ratings before reinstating cover. Carriers reopen bookings on their own timelines. Traders and industrial buyers rebuild inventory positions cautiously. Oliver Wyman analysis shows commercial typically continues for days to weeks after hostilities end. Shippers should maintain exposure management and alternative sourcing plans beyond any ceasefire announcement.
The Middle East conflict is a clear reminder: freight forwarders need speed, flexibility, and live market access to protect their clients and their margins. CSN gives independent forwarders exactly that. Quote multi-carrier routes in minutes. Book A2A or D2D. Zero subscription fees. Built by freight people, for freight people. Start free today at Cargo Solutions Network.
