The era of temporary disruptions is over. Supply chains have entered a phase of permanent structural volatility, driven by geopolitical fragmentation, trade policy shifts, and regional conflicts. For freight forwarders, 2026 demands a fundamental rethink: resilience is no longer defensive. It’s how you win cargo.
According to the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Value Chains Outlook 2026, developed with Kearney, 74% of business leaders now prioritize resilience investments as a driver of growth. This marks a strategic shift from efficiency-first models to adaptive networks built for constant change.
The Scale of: Numbers That Matter
The evidence is clear. In 2025 alone, tariff escalations reshuffled more than $400 billion in global trade flows. Container shipping costs surged 40% year on year. Manufacturing output across advanced economies grew at its weakest pace since 2009.
More than 3,000 new trade measures were introduced in 2025. That’s three times the rate from a decade ago. Policy uncertainty isn’t easing. It’s accelerating.
A survey by Global Trade Review of 3,500 senior supply chain executives found that 53% anticipate high or very high policy uncertainty in 2026. Nine in 10 business leaders expect trade barriers to rise or remain unchanged.
Geopolitics Now Drives Supply Chain Risk
Geopolitical factors have become the single greatest threat to logistics operations. A Reuters Events survey found that 74% of logistics managers now view geopolitics as the most serious risk in 2025. That’s up from just 33% in 2024.
The September 2025 Małaszewicze border crisis offers a stark example. When the EU-Belarus border closed for two weeks, the economic loss reached at least €450 million. China responded by accelerating development of the Middle Corridor and Arctic Sea routes.
“Volatility is no longer a temporary; it is a structural condition leaders must plan for. Competitive advantage now comes from foresight, optionality and ecosystem coordination.”
– Kiva Allgood, Managing Director, World Economic Forum
Yet only 5% of managers feel fully prepared for geopolitical disruptions, according to industry surveys. The gap between risk awareness and readiness is massive.
Red Sea, Taiwan, Ukraine: Hotspots That Hit Your Rates
Since November 2023, Houthi militia have launched more than 190 attacks on commercial shipping, sinking four vessels by mid-2025. Shipping lines rerouted roughly two million containers around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to Asia-Europe transit times.
The return to Suez remains conditional. Freight costs and lead times stay elevated.
Taiwan produces 85% of the world’s advanced AI semiconductors and accounts for nearly 60% of global chip supply. Any to Taiwan represents one of the most concentrated supply risks in the global economy. Short-term alternatives do not exist.
Ukraine supplies approximately 25% of global wheat and barley. Black Sea port access remains constrained. An estimated 15% of Ukraine’s grain storage capacity has been destroyed. Roughly 8 million tonnes of grain have been appropriated from occupied territories.
Tariffs Are Permanent, Not Temporary
Tariffs are no longer temporary trade tools. They’re embedded in policy. Current US tariff levels sit at 20 to 32% on China, 18% on India, and 25% on countries conducting business with Iran.
President Trump threatened tariffs of 10% on goods from Denmark, UK, Germany, Norway, Sweden, France, Netherlands and Finland starting February 1, rising to 25% in June.
Companies are no longer waiting for normalisation. They’re redesigning sourcing footprints and embedding tariff scenarios into core planning. Supplier diversification is the top strategic shift for 2026, cited by 51% of executives.
Cost Pressures Are Rising Across the Board
Half of supply chain executives forecast moderate or sharp cost increases across shipping, transport, labour, and customs compliance in 2026. The EU’s ETS2 climate policy is expected to increase freight transport costs by 20 to 30%.
Trade finance accessibility adds another layer of pressure. 53% of respondents find trade finance too costly, while 8% said access was difficult. The gap between large companies and SMEs is stark: only 35% of SME executives can readily access finance on reasonable terms, compared with 50% at large companies.
Resilience Strategies: What Leaders Are Doing Now
Supply chain executives are implementing tangible resilience measures. The top five strategic shifts planned for 2026 include:
- Supplier diversification (51%) – spreading risk across multiple partners and regions
- Higher inventories (44%) – building buffer stock to absorb disruptions
- Friend-shoring (36%) – sourcing from politically aligned countries
- New routes (26% actively pursuing, 23% evaluating) – exploring alternative corridors
- Warehousing and logistics hubs (39%) – investing in strategic storage locations
Companies are shifting to intra-regional networks and local warehousing to achieve what industry experts call ‘anti-fragility’. The focus is moving from physical redundancy to intelligence and visibility.
Digital Tools and AI: The Trust Gap
Technology offers part of the solution, but adoption faces barriers. While 52% of leaders use AI for decision support, only 19.5% of European companies trust AI to make autonomous decisions. The trust gap remains wide.
The World Economic Forum launched the Manufacturing and Supply Chain Readiness Navigator, a digital tool helping governments diagnose competitiveness gaps and companies assess infrastructure readiness. It draws insights from more than 100 consultations with leaders and survey data from over 300 senior executives.
“Supply chain in 2026 will be constant and structural. For supply leaders, the priority is no longer forecasting, but redesigning operating models to function under permanent uncertainty.”
– Per Kristian Hong, Partner, Kearney
Growth Outlook: Confidence With Contingency
Despite challenges, business confidence remains steady. 54% of executives expect growth in 2026 to be faster than in 2025, while 40% expect growth in line with 2025 levels.
Regional optimism varies. 79% of India respondents anticipate faster trade growth, along with 76% in the US, 70% in Saudi Arabia, 64% in the UAE, and 73% in Thailand.
Only 25% of executives expect incoming trade barriers to have a negative impact on their business. 49% expect no effect, and 26% see a positive impact. Many view the current environment as an opportunity to gain competitive advantage through superior resilience.
“What we’re seeing is confidence with contingency plans. Executives are embedding resilience into strategy by diversifying suppliers, reassessing routes and adding options, because volatility is now the baseline.”
– Margareta Drzeniek, Managing Partner, Horizon Group
What This Means for Freight Forwarders
The strategic imperative is clear. Volatility is permanent. Speed and flexibility are competitive advantages. Access to diverse capacity, real-time visibility, and the ability to quote complex, multi-leg routes fast will separate winners from those left managing spreadsheets.
Forwarders need tools that match the scale of the challenge: multi-carrier comparison, door-to-door options across regions, and the ability to routes when disruptions hit. The companies that build optionality into their operations will capture the growth.
One login. One workflow. Quote fast. Ship today. Win cargo.
