The numbers are stark. More than 1,200 cargo ships. $125 billion in stranded trade. Twenty thousand seafarers with nowhere to go. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for over 100 days, and the global freight industry is still absorbing the full scale of the damage.
Before the closure, up to 140 vessels transited the strait daily. That traffic carried roughly one fifth of all global petroleum liquids. Now most of it sits idle in the Persian Gulf, waiting. The has pushed oil prices close to $120 a barrel and forced a reckoning across every cargo segment that touches Middle East trade routes.
$125 Billion in Stranded Cargo: What the Numbers Mean
The $125 billion figure represents ships and cargo caught in the Persian Gulf with no safe passage out. It is not a projected loss. It is the live value of freight physically unable to move. For context, that figure rivals the annual GDP of many mid-sized economies.
The vessel count sits at approximately 1,150 to 1,200 cargo-carrying ships depending on the counting date. Pre-closure, the strait handled up to 140 transits per day across tankers, bulk carriers and container vessels. That flow has collapsed almost entirely since the closure took effect.
The 20,000 seafarers stranded alongside the cargo represent a humanitarian dimension that often gets buried in the trade figures. These are crew members stuck aboard vessels in limbo, unable to rotate off, with contracts expiring and no clear timeline for resolution. The human cost compounds the commercial one.
Energy Supply Shock: The IEA Warning and Oil Price Surge
The Strait of Hormuz is not merely a shipping lane. It is the single most critical energy corridor on the planet. Approximately one fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption moves through it. There is no practical alternative if it closes. The Red Sea diversion used during the Houthi attacks offered partial relief on container routes, but it cannot substitute for Hormuz on tanker traffic.
The International Energy Agency has put a number on the damage: a 1.8 million barrel-a-day shortfall. That figure reflects the gap between what markets need and what is currently moving. The consequence at the pump and in industrial fuel costs is already visible. Oil prices near $120 a barrel represent a significant input cost increase for virtually every freight mode.
Airlines, road hauliers and shipping operators all feel this. Higher bunker and jet fuel costs feed directly into freight rates. For cargo owners and forwarders already managing elevated insurance premiums and rerouting costs, the energy price spike adds another layer of margin pressure across the supply chain.
Allianz Commercial Declares a ‘New Maritime Order’
Allianz Commercial published its findings in the annual Safety and Shipping Review, and the language it used was deliberate. Thomas Lillelund, chief executive of Allianz Commercial, did not frame the Hormuz crisis as an isolated incident.
“The Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure is just the latest in a series of severe interruptions to hit shipowners and cargo operators.”
Lillelund continued: “Resilience, geopolitics and efficiency must be balanced in an increasingly unpredictable world, where the cost of uncertainty is reshaping the shipping industry.” That framing matters. It signals that insurers, not just operators, are now pricing geopolitical instability as a structural feature of maritime trade rather than an exceptional event.
Marine insurance has remained available throughout the conflict. But premiums are higher, and coverage terms have tightened. Shipowners returning to the strait after any reopening will need firm assurances of safe passage before traffic recovers to anything near pre-closure levels. The market will not simply snap back.
Chokepoint Vulnerability and the Precedent Being Set
Captain Rahul Khanna, global head of marine risk consulting at Allianz Commercial, made the long-term implications plain.
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sets a dangerous precedent and raises questions around the long-term future of this and other critical chokepoints.”
The precedent argument is significant. The Suez Canal blockage in 2021, the Red Sea Houthi attacks in 2023 and 2024, and now Hormuz in 2026. Three major chokepoints disrupted in five years. Each event exposed how little redundancy exists in global trade routing. Each one pushed shippers to hunt for alternatives that, in many cases, simply do not exist at scale.
Khanna also addressed the supply chain model that underpins most global trade: “What is becoming clear is that we have to pay a price for uncertainty, shifting from ‘just-in-time’ to ‘just-in-case’ supply chains, and prioritising resilience over cost efficiency.” For freight forwarders and cargo owners, that is a direct instruction to rethink how they build routing strategies and where they hold buffer stock.
What Reopening Looks Like: Confidence Before Traffic Returns
Even if a US-Iran agreement holds and the strait formally reopens, the backlog does not clear overnight. Over 1,200 vessels need to move through a passage that previously handled 140 transits per day. At that throughput, clearing the queue takes weeks. Priority questions around vessel types, cargo urgency and flag state will create new friction immediately.
Shipowners will not simply trust a political announcement. They will want naval escorts, mine-clearing confirmation and underwriter sign-off before routing assets through the strait again. Allianz Commercial’s review suggests the insurance market will apply scrutiny. Rates may ease eventually, but not quickly, and not without verified safety conditions on the water.
For UK and global businesses relying on Middle East energy and manufactured goods, the short-term picture remains difficult. Rerouting options for tankers are limited. Longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope are possible but add significant time and cost. For time-sensitive cargo, those alternatives are not viable. The result is sustained pressure on both availability and price.
CSN Perspective: Routing Intelligence When Markets Are Unstable
When chokepoints close, forwarders who can fast protect their clients. Those locked into single-route workflows or slow quoting processes lose business while others move. The Hormuz crisis is an extreme example, but the lesson applies whenever a tradelane becomes unreliable. Speed to quote, access to alternative capacity and real-time visibility are not optional extras. They are the difference between winning and losing cargo in volatile conditions.
At CSN, freight forwarders access a completely free booking portal with airport-to-airport (A2A) and door-to-door (D2D) options across global tradelanes. No subscription fees. No territory limits. When conditions change fast, you need to quote alternative routes quickly and lock rates without platform costs eating your margin. That is what we are built for.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much cargo is stranded due to the Strait of Hormuz closure?
Approximately $125 billion worth of ships and cargo are stranded in the Persian Gulf. More than 1,200 cargo-carrying vessels have been unable to transit the strait for over 100 days as of late June 2026.
How many seafarers are affected by the Hormuz closure?
Around 20,000 seafarers are currently stranded aboard vessels in the Persian Gulf. Crew rotation has been severely disrupted, with no clear timeline for relief given the ongoing closure.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important to global trade?
The strait carries approximately one fifth of all global petroleum liquids consumption. It is the primary export route for oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran. There is no large-scale alternative if it closes, which is why the has pushed oil prices close to $120 a barrel.
What has the Hormuz crisis done to oil prices and energy supply?
Oil prices have climbed close to $120 a barrel since the closure. The International Energy Agency has warned of a 1.8 million barrel-a-day shortfall between market demand and actual supply. Higher fuel costs are feeding into freight rates across all transport modes.
Will shipping return to normal once the strait reopens?
Not immediately. Allianz Commercial’s analysis indicates shipowners will require firm safety guarantees before returning vessels to the strait. The backlog of over 1,200 vessels will take weeks to clear even at pre-closure transit rates of 140 ships per day. Insurance premiums are expected to remain elevated during any transition period.
The Hormuz crisis is the clearest signal yet that global freight can no longer afford single-point routing strategies. At Cargo Solutions Network, we give independent forwarders the tools to quote, book and track across global tradelanes without subscription fees or territory limits. Built by freight people, for freight people. Quote your next route free at cargosolutionsnetwork.com.
